The odds vary depending on the game rules and the number of decks, but the odds of a dealer busting in blackjack are about 30%. What is the house edge in blackjack? The house edge in blackjack is the percent of the player’s initial bet that the casino should expect to win in the long-term. Blackjack is a game that may look simple on the outside, but beneath the surface, you’ll find that it’s all about odds and making the correct mathematical decisions. It’s easy to let your intuition take over and base your decisions at the table on that.
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Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds
To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.
Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack
In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.
Casino Blackjack Odds Of Winning
By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.
Probability of Busting on a Hit
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:
Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
---|---|
21 | 100% |
20 | 92% |
19 | 85% |
18 | 77% |
17 | 69% |
16 | 62% |
15 | 58% |
14 | 56% |
13 | 39% |
12 | 31% |
11 or Less | 0% |
Two-Card Count Frequencies
This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.
Two Card Count | % Frequency |
---|---|
Natural 21 | 4.8% |
Hard Standing (17-20) | 30.0 % |
Decision Hands (1-16) | 38.7% |
No Bust | 26.5% |
TOTAL | 100.0% |
Dealer Final Hand Probabilities
This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.
Dealer Final Hand Value | % | Cumulative % Total |
---|---|---|
Natural 21 | 4.82% | 4.83% |
21 (3 or More Cards) | 7.36% | 12.19% |
20 | 17.58% | 29.77% |
19 | 13.48% | 43.25% |
18 | 13.81% | 57.06% |
17 | 14.58% | 71.64% |
16 | 28.36% | 100.00% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.
Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
---|---|---|
2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck
When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.
Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.
Card | % Effect of Removal |
---|---|
2 | 0.40% |
3 | 0.43% |
4 | 0.52% |
5 | 0.67% |
6 | 0.45% |
7 | 0.30% |
8 | 0.01% |
9 | -0.15% |
10 | -0.51% |
A | -0.59% |
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For gamblers, four casino games offer decent odds. That is, if you made a hundred $1 bets at these recommended casino games, your average loss would only be about a buck. These odds aren’t good enough to retire on, but they stretch your bankroll as far as possible, even if you’re on a limited budget.
Neither life nor gambling offers any guarantees, and your actual daily results may be far different than your theoretical loss, so plan accordingly.
Jacks or Better Video Poker (the 9/6 Version)
House Odds Blackjack
The 9/6 version of Jacks or Better is considered full pay because you get a payout of 9 for 1 for a full house and 6 for 1 for a flush. The 9/6 version is the only one whose payout rate makes it worthwhile to play. Tips for playing this game well include:
- Make sure you’re playing a full-pay 9/6 version by looking at the Full House/Flush payouts for one coin.
- Because of the increased payouts for a royal flush, always play the maximum coins to get the best odds — even if that means finding nickel or quarter machines to stay within your bankroll.
- Never keep a kicker (a high card along with a pair).
- Throw away a small pair (tens or lower) if you have four cards to a flush or three cards to a royal flush.
Blackjack
Casino Free Blackjack
The way to win at Blackjack is to get better cards than the dealer. The aim is to have your cards add up to a maximum of 21.
- Play the table with the least number of decks.
- Stay away from gimmick games like 6-5 blackjack, Spanish 21, or Super Fun blackjack.
- Remember the following important tipsDouble down on 10 or 11 when dealer shows 2 to 9. (To double down means you double your bet and are allowed just one more card.)Stand on 13 to 16 when dealer shows 2 to 6.
- Hit on 12 to 16 when dealer shows 7 or higher.
- Never take insurance.
Craps
Rolling two dice is the essence of craps and what number those dice add up to determine whether bettors on the Pass line win or bettors on the Don’t Pass line do. A new player’s first roll is her come-out roll, and other players wager on what the shooter will roll. The smartest strategy is to stick to the following bets in craps:
- Pass line bet with odds bet
- Come bet with odds
- Don’t pass bet with odds
- Don’t come bet with odds
Odds On Blackjack
Baccarat
Blackjack Odds Of Winning
You may be intimidated by baccarat with its glitz, glamour, and European aura, but behind the stiff exterior lies a decent game for the average bettor because there are only three possible results of each hand and there’s no skill involved — it’s strictly the fall of the cards. A couple tips for doing well:
Blackjack Casino Odds
- Always bet on the banker (house edge is 1.06 percent, meaning if you made a hundred bets of $1, your average loss would be about a buck).
- You can also bet on the player’s hand. (The house edge is only slightly worse than the banker’s hand at 1.24 percent.)